Bloombergs poll tracker

As good as anything I have seen, for bringing all the polls together, and showing all the key indicators in one place. 

HERE

Bookmakers say "Remain" – are the odds manipulated?

An interesting view on the odds being offered which clearly suggest "Remain" is going to get up. At $1.29, it is shorter than QLD in the State of Origin last night at 1.52, and they were a sure thing. 

However – Strange things are happening within the betting with Bookmakers. 

From this article on Zerohedge – "Something Strange Emerges When Looking Behind The "Brexit" Bookie Odds"

Divergence between the size of bets

"Although Ladbrokes has received a higher volume of bets to leave the EU, those making a punt on remain were placing higher financially larger. Shaddick revealed the average stake on a bet to remain was £450, compared to £75 on a bet to leave."

In other words, a few large bettors are skewing the bookie odds dramatically in the favor of Remain, even as the mass of bettors is betting on Leave, albeit with smaller cash amounts. Another way of putting it: a substantially outsized influence by a wealthy minority over the poor majority, just like in every other aspect of life.

Whilst the wealthy could be placing larger bets, and influencing the odds, my view would be those closer to polling results, are likely to be making larger bets. 

The Problem with Polls

As mentioned above, the polls got the last UK election horribly wrong. Good article from the AFR HERE.

The article suggests the problem with polling, is the divergence between internet polling and traditional call lists. In short, internet panels and call lists used by pollsters contained too many politically-engaged young Labour supporters and not enough 70-plus conservatives. 

And the same thing could be happening again – 

" The South Australian-born strategist (Sir Lynton Crosby) is wary partly because of what he describes as an "unusual variation" between telephone and online polling. Online polls have generally shown Brexit in a stronger position while telephone surveys have often shown Remain in a stronger position, suggesting there could again be problems with sampling." (from the AFR article)

All the best,
Tom